A nonlinear model for evaluating the impact of internally displaced persons dynamics on the level of regional socio-economic

Abstract

The consequence of the military aggression of the Russian Federation is the loss of control over part of the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The events are accompanied by the objective processes of migration of persons who were forced to leave their permanent residence and move to other regions of Ukraine or abroad. As a result, a new category of citizens who are the internally displaced persons (IDPs) has arrived in the country counting for millions of people. In such circumstances, the study of the interdependence between gross regional product (GRP) and the IDP migration is topical and reflects the ongoing social and economic processes in a big European country. As a result of the study, a two-layer neural network with an error back-propagation model that simulates the nonlinear impact of the number of internally displaced persons on the dynamics of gross regional product has been constructed. According to the number of IDPs, regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv, including Kyiv city, are among the first ten regions of Ukraine. Based on the data from the abovementioned regions, we have formed a statistical sampling in order to formulate and test the prospective economic and mathematical model.