Analysing forced migration’s impact on Ukraine’s economic sustainability

Abstract

To characterize consequences of forced migration from Ukraine to European countries, quantifying its impact on economic growth, the number, income of the economically active population, investment and industry of Ukraine, and to develop recommendations for overcoming the negative economic effect of migration. The methods of analysis and synthesis, scientific abstraction, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, and graphical analysis were used. The article studies the factors that caused forced migration from Ukraine’s to European countries as well as the main differences in migration processes provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine are substantiated. The economic effects and conse quences of its impact on the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. The study is based on statistical data characterizing economic growth (GDP) and the factors that determine it (capital investment, economically active population). On the basis of the Cobb Douglas production function with neutral scientific and technological progress or Hicks scientific and technological progress and the use of linear regression analysis methods, the relationship between changes in the number of economically active population and economic growth is established. A forecast of changes in GDP under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population of Ukraine in 2023 is calculated and three main scenarios of GDP dynamics are developed in accordance with these forecasts. Each of them envisages a significant drop in output under the influence of migration. The article proposes ways to address the problem of forced migration in Ukraine’s economy and the conse quences of its negative impact on sustainable development based on the experience of European countries. Ways to restore indus try and attract investments to Ukraine are substantiated.