Development of Scientific and Methodical Approaches to the Assessment of the Debt Security of Ukraine

Abstract

The paper considers the concept of country’s debt security and studies approaches to assessing its level. The international and Ukrainian official methods of determining the level of debt security are investigated. The absolute indicators of indebtedness and debt ratios are dwelled on. The integral index of debt security of Ukraine for the period of 2007-2018 is calculated according to the Methodic recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine adopted in 2013. It is found out that the official method has deficiencies and needs to be improved. The method for calculating the debt security index of Ukraine is developed by expanding the list of debt security components. Using a correlation modeling tool, a system of factor indicators that significantly correlates with the dynamics of the debt security index is determined. To confirm the advisability of proposals towards improving the list of debt security indicators and the importance of the proposed indicators, a multi-factor linear regression model is constructed to characterize the influence of the main factors on the level of debt security of Ukraine.